In an interview, Haque said PJM managed the moment “seamlessly.” But the non-profit operator had to call on customers who had signed up for a power curtailment program to temporarily lessen their power usage.
In an era of data center and electric vehicle proliferation, as power demand grows and older, fossil-fuel-based power sources are retired, making sure the region has enough power is only going to get harder, Haque said.
“From where we sit, here’s what I’ll say: Operation of the power grid is going to be far more complicated,” he said.
Asked if he loses sleep over the problem, Haque answered without hesitating.
“1,000%,” he said.
Power warnings
In late June, temperatures in Dayton and the region logged in the mid- to upper-90s.
Credit: Nick Graham
Credit: Nick Graham
Three days of elevated low temperatures broke records in Dayton.
With demand rising faster than capacity, Ohio’s electric grid is at risk of being overwhelmed as early as 2027, Alexandra Denney warned Ohio lawmakers this spring, echoing warnings from PJM itself. Denney is vice president of government relations and communication with the Ohio Business Roundtable.
“Ohio is at a critical point in shaping its energy policy, and as private companies assess investment opportunities across the United States, we want Ohio to be their top choice,” Denney told lawmakers.
PJM first issued that warning in 2023, saying the grid operator was concerned a shortfall might happen “if nothing changed,” said Jeffrey Shields, a spokesman for PJM.
“Recently, we said, we think that’s actually moving up,” Shields added. “That timeframe (2027-28) is pretty realistic.”
But PJM leaders have been careful not to say definitively that anything will happen at a precise point.
Haque said PJM will soon release what he called a “balance sheet” contrasting power demand and supply, especially during peak summer and winter periods.
It is those peak periods — the hottest and coldest days in the Midwest, a region famed for dramatic weather swings — that most worry PJM decision-makers.
“Remember, 362 days out of the year, you’re not going to notice a difference,” Haque said. “It’s really these peak days when we’re really, really concerned.”
The projected shortfall — the gap between expected peak demand with a reserve margin and installed power capacity — is fueled by the spread of data centers and growing businesses, according to a study from the Ohio Business Roundtable.
Based in Valley Forge, Pa., PJM Interconnection manages and pays on-call generators to keep electricity humming. Its area of responsibility covers all or parts of 13 states plus Washington, D.C.
A story of growth
Ohio and much of the Midwest were in a time of relatively flat electric demand for years. But the proliferation of data centers and growing electrification — boosted by recharging requirements for electric vehicles, for example — altered that, Haque said.
“There will be days when the grid is strained, when we will certainly have challenges in keeping our lights on,” he said.
DataCenterMap.com has Ohio ranked fourth in the nation for its number of power-hungry data centers, trailing Virginia, Texas and California, the Bricker Graydon law firm in Dayton has noted.
With 172 data centers, Ohio has more data centers than neighbors Pennsylvania, Michigan and Indiana combined, the firm recently said.
Denney, from the Roundtable, said in an interview that her primary concern, and the Roundtable’s, is slowing economic momentum.
“Maybe the second question that companies are asking, after ‘Do you have land available?’, is, ‘Are we able to get electricity to the site or the property?’ And that is where we are kind of facing this problem,” she said.
“We don’t want that inability to provide that power to be the reason that they (businesses) choose Indiana instead, or Pennsylvania or Virginia,” she added.
Peak load or demand usually comes in the summer, with air conditioning usage.
But winter presents its own challenges. An example of that arose before Christmas 2022 when plummeting temperatures had PJM asking Midwest residents to conserve electricity.
One aspect of the overall challenge: Fossil-fuel generation sources — primarily gas plants and coal plants — were retired as federal rules became more stringent. But renewable sources — solar panel arrays and wind turbines — did not come online fast enough to replace those.
The good news: According to the Environmental Protection Agency, since 1995, sulfur dioxide emissions from power plants fell 95%, nitrogen oxide emissions fell 89%, and carbon dioxide emissions dropped 25%.
Those are changes PJM welcomes and embraces, Haque said. “We’ve seen quite a bit of emission reduction” in PJM’s area of responsibility, he said.
But there has been a price, some observers say.
Meeting the challenge
Policy-makers need to be cautious about pushing resources off the system before newer resources are in place to supplant them, Haque said.
“Many of Ohio’s recent economic victories were, in part, a result of the state’s reliable power supply, affordable prices, and ability to quickly connect new loads,“ the Ohio Business Roundtable study argues. ”If current trends in the power system are not addressed, the state risks losing out on capital investment that drives growth in jobs, personal income, and GDP."
Haque said he has met with Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine to talk through the challenges, and he has testified to Ohio lawmakers.
The concerns are not unique to Ohio, the Midwest or PJM, he and Denney agree.
A large chunk of the Roundtable’s study was based on PJM’s own projections, Denney said. And those projections are based on PJM’s reckoning of contracts utilities have signed with businesses in utility territories.
They also take into account companies that “get in line” for service from utilities, Denney said, showing a certain amount of demand waiting in the wings.
But she added: “The signed contracts are definitely more of a reliable projection.”
Ohio lawmakers this year put in motion several policy changes in House Bill 15, including: Speeding up the regulatory process that electric generators and transmitters go through to build infrastructure to meet demand. The bill also speeds up the regulatory process of approving new utility rates.
“Ohio Business Roundtable believes these are steps in the right direction, and very meaningful steps in the right direction,” Denney said.
Data centers “have a ripple effect” on an economy; companies want to be “close to their cloud, if you will,” she said.
Ultimately it is a good problem to have, she argues. “We just need to rise to the challenge.”
About the Author
